With that, the exchanged points would have been 8.4030356 and, assuming all matches up to today are correct, I end up with 1010.94647 points for BRB and 990.64809 for GUY. More precisely, they averaged the ex-ante ranking in both situations, and used 1005.9694 for BRB and 942.91417. I think that FIFA averaged both situations. We need that the points exchaged were 8.40. With that, the exchanged points would have been 8.3895, BUT (assuming all matches up to today are correct) I end up with 1010.97657 points for BRB and 990.62666 for GUY.ģ) So it seems that FIFA did something else. BUT (assuming all matches up to today are correct) I end up with 1010.93507 points for BRB and 990.65872 for GUY.Ģ) What I proposed in my post from 2019.07.25 was to use the November 2018 ranking (BRB: 1005.4952, GUY: 943.39295), and make an adjustment of points. With that, I get that the exchanged points would have been 8.416549.
Here it is what we should do about the BRB-GUY game:ġ) One way to update was to assume the match was never played on 2019.09.06 (inclusion=0), and instead was played on 2019.12.06, with GUY entering the match with 1006.4436 points for BRB and 942.43539. Sorry, I wrote the post but forgot to load it.
I will report on these differences later. I will further research the small differences (maximum 0.16 point) that I find for 19 teams in comparison between my calculations and FIFA's unrounded points. Strangely, this final was not included by FIFA ! Now this last match was part of a friendly tournament in Nepal and there was a final played in that tournament two days later between the same two teams. Nepal - Bangladesh friendly 0:0 in Kathmandu It was a Ghana B-team so that's not surprising.įIFA included two matches that I excluded: Uzbekistan - Ghana friendly 2:1 in Tashkent Kenya - South Sudan friendly 1:0 in Nairobi My assumption that the awarded Chad matches would be included, was correct.įIFA excluded two matches that I included: Indeed, the friendlies on the last Wednesday of the match window are calculated with an I-factor of 10, so I will adapt my formulas. Kudos to FIFA.Ī consequence is that the ranking positions are now based on these real points (instead of the rounded integer points), so teams will from now on have their own position and it will hardly occur anymore that two or more teams share a position. This makes it much easier to decide which matches should be included. Second and more important, they finally decided to give their points totals now rounded on two decimals. Deleteįirst, they published the ranking on Wednesday instead of the normal Thursday. I will of course adapt and reapply my formulas when FIFA has shown that they calculate this specific case with an I-factor of 10. We will see next week what FIFA decides here.
That's the 'nearest' example of how to handle here, but these are certainly different circumstances.
The extended windows in November and October last year had no friendlies on the Wednesday and we saw in the last September window (officially 'opened' for UEFA only) that an AFC-friendly (scheduled inside the window) was calculated with an I of 10. To be honest, I don't know for certain if these friendlies should be calculated with an I-factor of 5 or 10. Officially a FIFA International match window does not include the Wednesday, but as this March window was extended by one day (for the UEFA confederation) to accommodate 3 match days of WC qualification, one could indeed argue if also friendlies played on that last day should be included in the window. Hi Rodrigo, you're welcome and that's a really good question.